Cold Flow Improvers Market - Forecast(2023 - 2028)

Cold Flow Improvers Market Overview

Cold Flow Improvers Market is forecast to reach $874.2 million by 2026, after growing at a CAGR of 5.4% during 2021-2026. The ability of cold flow improvers to prevent intermixing of fuel components is one of the driving forces behind the market's expansion. Another aspect that is estimated to fuel the market's growth is the use of cold flow improvers to increase the efficiency of fuel engines that work at low temperatures. 

Currently, the rising usage of biofuels such as biodiesel, as a lubricity improver and diesel fuel extender is anticipated to raise the demand for cold flow improvers. Cold flow improvers also increases biofuels, petroleum fuels, crude oils, and residual oil’s low-temperature handling properties, boosting the refinery's gross margins. Furthermore, rise in demand for electric cars and governments encouraging electric car adoption is projected to create hurdles for the cold flow improvers industry to expand during the predicted period.

Covid-19 Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic affected the sales of a large number of automotive and subsequently interrupted the manufacturing operation. Moreover the supply of cold flow improvers in import-dependent countries was also significantly affected due to the current trade disruptions. With the sudden increase of Covid-19, the global sales of automotive vehicles decreased from 90 423 687 units in 2019 to 77 971 234 units in the year 2020 as per the Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d'Automobiles (OICA) statistics. Thus, due to which the cold flow improvers market demand declined drastically in the span 2020-21.

Cold Flow Improvers Market Report Coverage

The: “Cold Flow Improvers Market Report – Forecast (2021-2026)”, by IndustryARC, covers an in-depth analysis of the following segments of the cold flow improvers market.

By Type: Polyalkyl Methacrylate, Polyacrylates, Polyalpha Olefin, Ethylene Vinyl Acetate, Styrene Esters, Oligomerized alkyl phenols, Fluorocarbon Vinyl Acetate, and Others
By Application: Gasoline, Diesel Fuel, Aviation Fuel, Lubricating Oil, and Others
By End Use Industry: Automotive, Marine, Aerospace & Defence, Industrial, Domestic Use, and Others
By Geography: North America (U.S, Canada, and Mexico), Europe (U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Russia, Belgium, and Rest of Europe), APAC (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Rest of Asia Pacific), South America (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Rest of South America), and RoW (Middle East and Africa)

Key Takeaways

• The cold flow improvers market in Asia Pacific region was dominated by the flourishing automotive industry, which accelerated the demand for cold flow improvers in lubricant additives to improve lubricant's ability to withstand low temperatures.
• ·Increased understanding of fossil fuel resources scarcity and environmental concerns has contributed to the discovery of viable, environmentally sustainable fuels such as biodiesel which is driving the growth of the market.
• ·Cold flow improvers are polymers or lubricant additives processed in pipelines and manufacturing units to manage wax formation. Thus owing to which they are commonly used in the lubricants and oil & gas end-use industries.

Figure: Cold Flow Improvers Market Revenue, 2020-2026 (US$ Million)

Cold Flow Improvers Market Segment Analysis - By Type

Polyalkyl methacrylate segment held the largest share in the cold flow improvers market in 2020. Polyalkyl methacrylate is commonly used in the finished fuel and lubricating oil industries because it has wax deposition inhibition properties at low temperatures, which prevents wax crystal formation and deposition in heavy and light vehicle engines. Since, polyalkyl methacrylate are adaptable, it allows them to be blended with fuels like diesel and aviation fuel. Thus, due to which the demand for polyalkyl methacrylate is estimated to rise. With the growing usage of polyalkyl methacrylate, it is further estimated that the market will upsurge in the forecast period.

Cold Flow Improvers Market Segment Analysis - By Application

Diesel fuel held the largest share in the cold flow improvers market in 2020. Increasing demand for diesel as a result of rapid economic growth in some countries has led to increased transportation and electricity requirements. Diesel is more effective, produces better results, and is safer than other combustible fuels. Its energy density is also higher than that of other liquid fuels. With such high demand, the pace at which vehicles are purchased is rapidly increasing. 

Because of the demand for high-performance fuel from the automotive industry and the adoption of biofuel mandates by various countries to reduce petroleum consumption, demand for products like ethanol and biodiesel will rise, necessitating the use of fuel additives like corrosion inhibitors, cold flow improvers, and others to be blended in diesel fuel. Thus, owing to these factors the demand for diesel fuel is rising, which is driving the global cold flow improvers market.

Cold Flow Improvers Market Segment Analysis - By End Use Industry

The automotive sector held the largest share in the cold flow improvers market in 2020 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5% during the forecast period 2021-2026. The demand for cold flow improvers, which help lubricant additives meet low-temperature requirements for diesel fuels, has been directly influenced by the rise in automotive sales, that could lead to substantial growth in the cold flow improvers industry. 

According to the Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d'Automobiles (OICA), the global sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles was 53 598 846 units and 24 372 388 units respectively in the year 2020. After the havoc of Covid-19, the automotive industry in several countries were highly affected, even though countries such as South Korea and Taiwan recorded positive growth in the sales of passenger cars. As compared to the year 2019, the sales of passenger cars in 2020 increased by 8.1% in South Korea and 20% in Taiwan. Therefore, with the growing automotive industry it is estimated that the demand for cold flow improvers will also increase in the forecast period.

Cold Flow Improvers Market Segment Analysis - By Geography

Asia Pacific held the largest share with 40% in cold flow improvers market in 2020. The demand for cold flow improvers in this region is primarily driven by growth in end-use industries such as automotive and aerospace & defense, as well as increasing usage of polyalkyl methacrylate as cold flow improvers. Growing demand for automotive in the emerging economies, such as China, Japan, India, and South Korea is anticipated to drive the market in the upcoming years. 

According to the International Trade Administration, China continues to be the world’s largest vehicle market with the Chinese government estimating the automobile output to reach 30 million units by 2020 and 35 million by 2025. Also, according to the India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), two wheelers and passenger vehicles dominate the domestic Indian auto market. Two wheelers and passenger cars accounted for 80.8% and 12.9% market share, respectively, accounting for a combined sale of over 20.1 million vehicles in FY20. The demand for cold flow improvers is therefore anticipated to increase in the forecast period because of these properties.

Cold Flow Improvers Market Drivers

Increasing Demand for Bio-based Diesel in Automotive Industry

Biodiesel increases the fuel's cetane number and boosts its lubricity. A higher cetane number indicates that the engine is easier to start and reduces ignition delay. To keep moving parts from wearing out prematurely, diesel engines depend on the lubricity of the fuel. Also, improved lubricity decreases friction between moving parts, resulting in less wear. Growing demand for bio-based diesel owing to the above mentioned properties would drive the demand for cold flow improvers in the upcoming years. Additionally, the main benefit of biodiesel is that it can increase the lubricity of the fuel even at 1% blend levels. 

The most popular biodiesel blend is B20, which contains anywhere from 6% to 20% biodiesel and petroleum diesel. However, B5 (a biodiesel blend containing 5% biodiesel and 95% diesel) is widely used in fleet vehicles. Many diesel vehicles will run on B20 and lower-level blends without any engine modifications. Thus, owing to such benefits, an increase in demand for bio-based diesel in automotive is being witnessed. With the rising demand for bio-diesel, the market for cold flow improvers is anticipated to rise in the forecast period.

Growth from Aerospace and Defense Sector

The aviation industry makes extensive use of the cold flow improver since aircraft are often operating at sub-zero temperatures, where a fuel's flow properties cannot be maintained. As a result, additives and fuel are mixed together to preserve the fuel's flow properties at extremely low temperatures. Cold flow improvers (CFIs) operate by altering the crystallization of wax particles. Cold flow enhancers act as a nucleator and co-cristallizes through saturated hydrocarbon chains, when crystals grow, rearranging the wax crystal from plate-like to needle-like size and design. 

Smaller wax crystals move through filters easier and are less likely to form a three-dimensional gel structure that obstructs fuel flow. India's aviation industry is forecast to receive Rs 35,000 crore (US$ 4.99 billion) in investment over the next four years, according to the India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF). Henceforth all the aforementioned factors are expected to drive the cold flow improver market in the forecast period.

Cold Flow Improvers Market Challenges

Rising Demand for Electric Vehicles

Increasing demand for electric vehicles as an alternative fuel vehicle will act as a restraint for the growth of the cold flow improvers market. The rising demand for carbon emissions reduction and the production of more sophisticated and faster charging stations are expected to fuel the growth of electric vehicles and detain the use of fuel vehicles, affecting the demand for cold flow improvers. According to the International Energy Agency, over the last ten years, the number of electric passenger cars on the road has gradually increased, with the global stock of electric passenger cars increasing by 5 million in 2018, up 63% from the previous year (2017). In 2018, China accounted for nearly half of all electric vehicles on the road (2.3 million), compared to 39% in 2017. In contrast, Europe accounted for 24 per cent of the global fleet, while the United States accounted for 22 per cent of the global fleet. Hence, rising demand for electric vehicles will further create hurdles for the growth of cold flow improvers market in the forecast period.

Cold Flow Improvers Market Landscape

Technology launches, acquisitions, and R&D activities are key strategies adopted by players in the cold improvers market. Major players in the cold improvers market are Chevron Oronite, Akzo Nobel N.V, Evonik Industries AG, Lubrizol Corporation, Clariant AG, BASF SE, Afton Chemicals, Innospec, Infineum International Limited, Baker Hughes, and among others.

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